From Sophie's front desk — Sunday, July 12
Al Jazeera — read the full story
When oil spikes on geopolitical fear, what's actually getting repriced—the barrel itself, or our appetite for the risks we'll swallow to keep the lights on? Al Jazeera reports Brent crude jumped over 4% to nearly $79 a barrel Monday as U.S.-Iran tensions tightened around the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint that moves a third of the world's seaborne oil. Traffic through the strait has collapsed from 130 daily crossings to single digits in recent windows, and Asian markets are already pricing in the cascade: South Korea's Kospi plunged 5%, the Nikkei fell more than 1%. Oil is still 9% above pre-war levels even after briefly dipping back to baseline in June—which means the market never quite believed the truce. Epictetus has the first word on what we control here, then Seneca.
The strait does not care who claims it. Xerxes bridged it. Alexander crossed it. Now two modern powers rattle sabers across its narrow throat and the price of oil leaps — nine percent above where it stood before the first shot. Nine percent. For what? A change in opinion. Not in the oil, not in the ships, not in the water. Only in what men believe about tomorrow. We have seen this before.
The traveler stranded at an inn when the winter storms close the mountain pass. He paces. He curses the sky. He calculates the cost of each delayed day. The innkeeper watches, unbothered. The storm will break when it breaks. The traveler's fury changes nothing but the traveler. South Korea's index plunges five percent in a morning. Traders in Tokyo and London adjust their forecasts. The oil itself sits where it has always sat — in the ground, indifferent.
The disruption is real. The fear is optional. A man once wept before an image of his dead child, carrying it from room to room as though the painted wood could be persuaded to breathe. We do the same with numbers on a screen. We treat the price as a promise. It is not a promise. It is an event. The strait has seen empires drown. It will see these two as well. What did you assume was yours to secure that was never yours to hold?
vessel? Who does not value a benevolent and faithful adviser? Who will not willingly receive a man who is ready to bear a share, as we may say, of the difficulty of his circumstances, and by this very act to ease the burden, by taking a part of it. THE ENCHEIRIDION, OR MANUAL. I.…
vessel? Who does not value a benevolent and faithful adviser? Who will not willingly receive a man who is ready to bear a share, as we may say, of the difficulty of his circumstances, and by this very act to ease the burden, by taking a part of it. THE ENCHEIRIDION, OR MANUAL. I.…
were to succeed. No sooner was Marcus settled upon the throne than wars broke out on all sides. In the east, Vologeses III. of Parthia began a long-meditated revolt by destroying a whole Roman Legion and invading Syria (162). Verus was sent off in hot haste to quell this rising; …
The Internet Classics Archive | The Enchiridion by Epictetus Home Browse andComment Search Buy Books andCD-ROMs Help The Enchiridion By Epictetus Commentary: A few comments have been posted about The Enchiridion. Download: A 40k text-only version is available for download. The En…
84) .90 ——: _David Hume’s Political Essays_. (LLA 34) _cl. $3.00_ .90 ——: _An Inquiry Concerning Human Understanding_. (LLA 49) .80 ——: _An Inquiry Concerning the Principles of Morals_. (LLA 62) .75 *Kant: _Critique of the Aesthetic Judgment_. Tr. W. Cerf. (LLA 73) 1.25 ——: _Crit…
Lucilius, you ask how I read the news from the strait. I read it in the grain ships that failed to reach Ostia in '51 — the winter the Alexandrian fleet held back by contrary winds, and Rome starved while speculators hoarded in their warehouses. The price of bread tripled in a fortnight. Men fought in the Forum for a measure of wheat. The emperor's freedmen grew rich on the shortage. The strait is not new.
The narrow passage has always been the throat through which empire breathes. Close it, and the body convulses — Kospi, Nikkei, the pension fund in Londinium, the baker in Antioch. The merchant who thought his wealth lay in ships learns it lay in the water's permission. The general who thought his power lay in legions learns it lay in the supply line no legion can guard. We call it risk. The Greeks called it tuche — the turn of the wheel no virtue can steady.
Nine percent above pre-war levels. Single-digit crossings where a hundred thirty passed. The numbers are modern; the shape is older than the Persian Wars. I watched the gladiators at midday in the Campus Martius. The crowd roared for blood, then fell silent when the trumpet signaled the next pair — because the grain dole had been cut, and hunger quiets even the appetite for spectacle. The wise man does not curse the strait.
He stores oil against the winter he cannot prevent. Write to me when the ships move again.
vessel? Who does not value a benevolent and faithful adviser? Who will not willingly receive a man who is ready to bear a share, as we may say, of the difficulty of his circumstances, and by this very act to ease the burden, by taking a part of it. THE ENCHEIRIDION, OR MANUAL. I.…
vessel? Who does not value a benevolent and faithful adviser? Who will not willingly receive a man who is ready to bear a share, as we may say, of the difficulty of his circumstances, and by this very act to ease the burden, by taking a part of it. THE ENCHEIRIDION, OR MANUAL. I.…
were to succeed. No sooner was Marcus settled upon the throne than wars broke out on all sides. In the east, Vologeses III. of Parthia began a long-meditated revolt by destroying a whole Roman Legion and invading Syria (162). Verus was sent off in hot haste to quell this rising; …
The Internet Classics Archive | The Enchiridion by Epictetus Home Browse andComment Search Buy Books andCD-ROMs Help The Enchiridion By Epictetus Commentary: A few comments have been posted about The Enchiridion. Download: A 40k text-only version is available for download. The En…
84) .90 ——: _David Hume’s Political Essays_. (LLA 34) _cl. $3.00_ .90 ——: _An Inquiry Concerning Human Understanding_. (LLA 49) .80 ——: _An Inquiry Concerning the Principles of Morals_. (LLA 62) .75 *Kant: _Critique of the Aesthetic Judgment_. Tr. W. Cerf. (LLA 73) 1.25 ——: _Crit…
Al Jazeera carried the story. Oil markets don't wait for diplomacy, and a closed strait costs everyone equally. That's Old News for today.